American-Ideal.com

Foreign Policy has always been a weak spot in American politics. We have had a few high points such as the era shortly after World War II and during the Nixon Administration. All of Nixon’s faults aside, he had the courage to approach China and the Soviet Union with a spirit of peace supported by the strength of our American ideals, and of course, our military power stood behind those ideals. We must always remember that our finest hours were when the U.S pursued dialogue and peace, not when others suggested peace to us.

I believe the last several years rank as some of our worst hours in the history of our foreign policy. The tensions in the Middle East are wound so tight that something may snap, and all our policy accomplishes to wind the region ever tighter. When historians review our policy, I believe the unanimous conclusion will be that our ignorance of the region contributed to the snap heard around the world.

President Bush will probably not have to deal with the outcome of our policy; it is the next administration that will face the music. We will vote for that administration so we need to vote smart for a policy that will reduce the tensions. There is no way to vote smart unless we understand the Middle East. This essay lays out for you the tangle of political wrangling and infighting in the Middle East. You will learn that, as usual, our ignorance of the issues places us in the middle of the cat fight.

Policy Proposals

The republican stance is fear; if we don’t keep pulling the trigger we will all die at the hands of terrorists. The belief is that our shear power will topple the bad guys. The republicans don’t seem to understand that improvised explosive devices and a zealot with a bomb strapped to his body are not easily thwarted by high technology. The policy also ignores the uncertainty of who the bag guys are and the source of their power.

The democrats are trying to illuminate a more sophisticated policy by arguing that a political solution is just as important as power, but what is meant by a political solution? We rely too much on sound bites and too little on the big picture. Knowing reality in the Middle East is important if we are to make the right choice in 2008.

The Shiites

Quick, without reading further, are the Shiites the good guys or the bad guys? Many people, including many of our political leaders would say the Shiites are the bad guys. Shiites get their bad reputation from the “Death to America” chants in Iran and the terrorist high jinks of Hezbollah. Given that people believe Shiites are the bad guys we naturally assume that Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda are Shiite – they are not.

If the Shiites are the bad guys then why are we fighting for them in Iraq? The Shiites in Iraq are the majority, but have been oppressed by Sunnis for centuries, culminating in massive oppression under Saddam. Given the lack of evidence that the war was justified to defend America, the war has become a war of liberation of the oppressed Shiites with a goal to create a stable democracy in the Middle East. The war did liberate the Iraqi Shiites, and the Iraqi Shiites are the most ardent supporters of democracy in the region. In fact, in an odd twist of fate the Iranians and even Hezbollah are stanch defenders of democracy.

Iranians came out in masses after 9/11 to hold a candlelight vigil of sorrow over the tragedy. It is true that Iranians only get to vote for candidate approved by the clergy, but Iranians have voted against candidates ardently endorsed by the clergy. Hezbollah has gained power in Lebanon through legitimate democratic processes. It is odd that a terrorist organization and a country that chants “Death to America” are stanch defenders of what we are trying to accomplish in the Middle East. There must be something else going on that we don’t understand.

The Sunnis

Quick, without reading further, are the Sunnis the good guys or the bad guys? Many people, including many of our political leaders would say the Sunnis are the good guys. Our closest allies are Sunnis. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan are all Sunni; but are these allies the good guys? In the case of Jordan I would say yes. But Saudi Arabia is a monarchy where thirty percent of the people are unemployed, most being angry young males. Pakistan is a dictatorship led by a former general that staged a coup. Al Qaeda is Sunni; Bin Laden is Sunni. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan funded and established the Taliban, the government that gave haven to bin Laden. Egypt is far from a working democracy. The U.S calls the Sunnis, generally led by governments most resistant to democracy, our allies in the war against terrorism and our quest to establish democracy in the Middle East.

The Big Picture

Sunnis and Shiites hate each other. Sunnis see their faith as true and they see the Shiites as sub-human animals. Shiites do not have a higher opinion of the Sunnis. The conflict is a millennium old. Over the last 1000 years the Shiites have been subjugated, abused, and in cases the recipients of genocide. However, after the overthrow of the Shaw of Iran the Shiites got a toe hold on their destiny. Iran is a nearly pure Shiite state and Ayatollah Khomeini made sure the world knew the Shiites were back. Under Khomeini Iran ventured out to light a fire under the Shiite sub-states in the region, including Iraq; but only one, Hezbollah in Lebanon, bit the hook. For two decades the Shiites sat lonely in Iran and in the guise of Hezbollah, but now Iraq, thanks to our liberation, can be added to the Shiite revival and the Sunnis don’t like it.

Sunnis are bent on the destruction of the Shiites. The insurgency in Iraq is not about the fall of Saddam, it is the manifestation of the regional conflict between Shiite and Sunnis. The Sunni insurgency is manned and funded by the Sunni states (our Allies); the Shiite response is manned and funded by Iran. The war is not a civil war; it is the surrogate for the silent regional civil war.

Sunnis are out to destroy the Shiites and this is why Iran is looking for a nuclear bomb. Sunni Pakistan has one so the Shiites want the same. We are playing with fire in the Middle East, but we don’t seem to understand the actors.

The silent regional civil war is built around governments and individuals, both Shiites and Sunnis, vying for political and religious power within the Middle East and within the Muslim faith at large. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a pure Shiite or Sunni faith. There are as many disagreements on what is means to be a Shiite or Sunni as there are streets in Baghdad. If you are trying to establish political and religious power over a diverse group what do you do? You create a third party common enemy; the U.S and Israel is that third party common enemy. We are not hated; we are the cement that holds warring factions together. We are a political pawn.

If we continue to only use bullets as the enforcer of our foreign policy we play right into the role as the common enemy. Sunnis and Shiites alike will see the U.S as the enemy. However, if we leave Iraq the Shiite majority will win and will drive out the Sunnis.

With a Shiite victory the Shiites in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq will unite as a political alliance. The Kurds will stand alone, but could upset the tenuous stability in Turkey. There are many Kurds in Turkey with an independent streak. If there is an independent Kurdish territory the ensuing turmoil could take down Turkey, one of the few democracy-driven states in the region.

With a Shiite victory the Sunnis in Iraq will flee westward into Jordan destabilizing that country. Our so-called Sunni allies will form their own regional alliance against the Shiites and only god and hell knows what may come next. Remember, the Saudi Arabia/Pakistan alliance gave the world the Taliban and thus Al Qaeda and Iran wants a nuclear bomb to defend itself against a Sunni on-slot.

What to Do

Our policy is messed up because we look toward the attitudes of governments and not the attitudes of people. The Shiite people respect the U.S, but their governments do not – and why – because their people respect the U.S. Remember, to stay powerful the government needs a third party enemy. We fall into the third party enemy trap by calling a country our enemy when the majority of the people actually support us.

In the case of the Sunnis we have governments that claim their allegiance to the U.S like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, but their people hate us – and why – because we ally with their government, a government that oppress them. We fall into the Sunni third party enemy trap by supporting governments where the people hate us.

If we are to win the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism we have to lead the peace. Many of you may be saying how can we lead the peace when country like Iran chants Death to America and when Iran and a terrorist organization like Hezbollah dedicate themselves to the destruction of the west and Israel? We can win the war if we base our policy on the interests of the people of the region. We need to respect the Shiite people and appeal to the interests of the Sunnis living under oppressive regimes.

We need to return to the roots of our power and rely on the power of our ideals and the power of our economic might to bring prosperity. We rely too much on the power of our force alone. We need to open a dialogue between all players in the Middle East and call each party on the folly of their hatred. It is not diplomatic to call someone the carpet for their hatred, but sometimes the most effective diplomacy is brutal honesty. We should recognize that the Shiites have shown a record of supporting democracy and that the Sunnis have not. We need to show appreciation for the efforts of the Iranian people to stand for democracy in their own country and thank them for their support on 9/11. We need to say loud and clear that making the U.S and Israel a common enemy of the Islamic faith is a political move, and we must then prove it by leading with justice for the people of the Middle East.

This may sound naive, but using our guns alone is cementing our role as the common enemy and increases the divide between Sunnis and Shiites while increasing their power. The use of guns alone feeds the legitimacy of the terrorist arm of Hezbollah and strengthens the Taliban and al Qaeda.

It is often said that there are three pillars of power. One is coercive power, basically do what I tell you or I will kill you. Another pillar is economic power. Economic power can be used coercively or it can be used more effectively in a supportive manner such as do this and I will reward you. The third pillar of power is the power of ideas and the ideals behind them. Good policy leads with ideals, backs them up with the supportive use of economic power, and has a mighty army standing behind. For eight years we have put force first. Let’s rearrange our policy and lead with American ideals.

Copyright: American-Ideal.com; Ross V. Overby, 2007